98th Academy Awards Predictions (Best Picture)

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The 98th Academy Awards are due to be announced tomorrow (Thursday 22nd January), and here are my predictions for Best Picture.

A few months ago the most likely candidate for this award was Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another, another masterpiece from one of the finest filmmakers working today.  However, as awards season began to heat up, other contenders entered the ring.   From Hamnet, Chloé Zhao's sublime version of Maggie O'Farrell's 'unfilmable' novel, to Clint Bentley's hauntingly beautiful Train Dreams.   Here are my contenders for Best Picture:


Blue Moon

Director: Richard Linklater

Stars: Ethan Hawke, Margaret Qualley


This biographical drama tells the story of Lorenz Hart and Elizabeth Weiland, as the former reflects on the opening night of Oklahoma!, a new musical by his former colleague Richard Rodgers.  The Academy has always loved stories about itself, and Ethan Hawke as Lorenz Hart is hotly tipped to win Best Actor at the Academy Awards.

Preorder on Amazon 

F1

Director: Joseph Kosinski

Stars: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon


Joseph Kosinski made a splash with his sequel to Top Gun a few years back, and this new movie - about the rivalry between an ageing racer and a newcomer in the world of Formula 1 - bears much of the same kinetic energy he showed with Top Gun: Maverick.  The love story between Pitt's racer and Kerry Condon's technician gives this story an extra winning dimension.

Watch on Apple TV

Frankenstein

Director: Guillermo del Toro

Stars: Oscar Isaac, Jacob Elordi, Mia Goth, Christoph Waltz


We all know the story of Frankenstein, the novel by Mary Shelley, even if not everybody knows the details as they appear in the novel.  Guillermo del Toro has clearly read the novel, and then tossed it out - his re-imagining of Shelley's classic is full of his visual styling, beautiful story telling, and heart. 

Watch on Netflix

Hamnet

Director: Chloé Zhao

Stars: Jessie Buckley, Paul Mescal


Chloé Zhao's version of Maggie O'Farrell's award winning novel Hamnet, tells the story of William Shakespeare, his relationship with Agnes Hathaway, and of their son, Hamnet.  This is an incredibly beautiful film, with an ending which totally floored me.  Jessie Buckley deserves every award going for her incredible performance here.

In UK Cinemas (Jan 2026), soon on Apple TV

Marty Supreme

Director: Josh Safdie

Stars: Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A'zion


Josh Safdie has been making interesting cinema for a while now - check out Uncut Gems - and he continues that trend with the story of a table-tennis player in 1950s America.  That may not sound like the makings of a great film - but the verve, energy and styling of Safdie, combined with a career best performances by Timothée Chalamet and Odessa A'zion make this a contemporary masterpiece.

In UK Cinemas (Jan 2026), soon on Apple TV

One Battle After Another

Director: Paul Thomas Anderson

Stars: Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Chase Infiniti


When ex-revolutionary Bob Fergusson's new life is upturned by his former life, chaos ensues, and Paul Thomas Anderson turns Thomas Pynchon's Vineland into something truly special, full of great shots, performances, and absurdist humour.  This was a great watch on the big screen, and extremely memorable.

Available to rent on Amazon

The Secret Agent

Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho

Stars: Wagner Moura, Carlos Francisco, Tânia Maria


Armando (Wagner Moura) is a former professor caught in the political turmoil in the midst of the Brazilian military dictatorship in the 1970s, attempting to flee persecution and resist an authoritarian regime.   This thrilling, often witty film, really feels like one of those 70s thrillers that the US used to do so well - it is a propulsive film, pulsating with energy, and a truly great central performance.

In UK Cinemas (Feb 2026) Mubi Films

Sentimental Value

Director: Joachim Trier

Stars: Stellan Skarsgård, Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Elle Fanning


Joachim Trier brings out a career best performance from Stellan Skarsgård as a film-maker and the relationship with his daughters.   This was beautifully made by Trier - the Norwegian director fast-becoming one of the shining lights of international film - and this one moved me greatly.

In UK Cinemas (Jan 2026) Preorder on Amazon

Sinners

Director: Ryan Coogler

Stars: Michael B. Jordan, Hailee Steinfeld


Ryan Coogler's film begins as a 1930s drama about two criminals trying to make their way in life in rural Mississippi, but soon morphs into a vampire horror with true magic at its heart.   There is one bravura set-piece here involving the music which is at the heart of this film that I still think about many months after I saw it.  This is perhaps the most commercial film on my shortlist, but a worthy entry.


Available to buy Amazon 

Train Dreams

Director: Clint Bentley

Stars: Joel Edgerton, Felicity Jones


I read Train Dreams, the novel by Denis Johnson when it was published in 2011, and never thought I would see it as a film.  Clint Bentley has done a magisterial job adapting the novel, and the central performance by Joel Edgerton is something to behold.  The story of a railroad labourer in the 1910s, whose life is changed by tragedy, this one has great cinematography and score, and is one of the most beautiful films I saw in 2025.

Available on Netflix


Prediction: I think One Battle After Another is likely to win Best Picture, but I would love to see Train Dreams take top place.


Location: United Kingdom

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